ALMATY, December 5. /ARKA/. Inflation in Armenia is forecasted to reach 3.1% year-on-year by the end of 2025, according to the bank’s macroeconomic forecast for 2025-2027.
“We expect inflation to return to the target range (4±1.5%) by the first quarter of 2025. This will be supported by: the recovery in global food prices, the effect of the refinancing rate cuts over the past year and a half, an expansionary fiscal policy, and a moderate depreciation of the dram,” the forecast states.
According to the document, in 2026–2027, inflation will slow down somewhat after recovering in 2025 and will stabilize near the lower limit of the target range set by the Central Bank of Armenia, averaging 2.8% per year. This trend will be driven by the stability of the dram exchange rate, global food prices, and the return of the economy to long-term growth rates.
In this regard, the EDB expects another reduction in the refinancing rate in December, bringing it down to 7.0%.
Figures for Armenia
The inflation rate in Armenia’s state budget for 2024 is set at 4% (±1.5%). According to the Central Bank’s report on monetary policy for the third quarter of this year, inflation in Armenia is expected to range between 2.1% and 2% by the end of 2024. The forecast for 2025 is 4% to 3.2%, for 2026 – 4.2% to 3.8%, and for 2027 – 4%.
The World Bank expects inflation in Armenia to be 3% in 2024, 3.5% in 2025, and 4% in 2026. The IMF predicts that prices in Armenia will rise by 3.1% in 2024 and by 3.7% in 2025. According to ADB forecasts, inflation in Armenia will be 0.8% in 2024, and in 2025, it will accelerate to 2.5%. The EDB expects inflation in Armenia to reach 1.5% by the end of the current year.
