YEREVAN, June 29. /ARKA/. International Monetary Fund (IMF) downgraded external current account deficit forecast for Armenia to 10% of GDP in 2012 and 8.7% of GDP in 2013.
IMF says Armenian export is projected to total in over $1.6 billion this year, and over $1.73 billion in 2013, whereas import- over $3.7 billion and over $3.8 billion respectively.
According to “Republic of Armenia: Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility” report, as fiscal consolidation rates are slowing down , Armenian economy will recover through further increase in remittances and improvement of business environment.
Business environment should strengthen domestic competition, increase the volume of investments and exports, including non-tradition types of products (information technologies), the source states.
Flexibility of Armenian dram may also contribute to the economic recovery of the country, pension and insurance reforms will have a favorable impact on private savings, according to the report.
IMF experts think the export is still dependable on fluctuations in global prices, especially those for metal ore. However prices forecasts shore up export volume growth in USD, and the growth will be sustainable, they imply.
The ongoing growth of Russian economy ( not as high as in 2011 though)- source of almost 90% of remittances to Armenia- will ensure increase in private remittances and other transfers to Armenia. At the same time the volume of foreign direct investments are assessed quite carefully due to uncertainty around global economy development. –0–
