YEREVAN, August 30, /ARKA/. Moody’s Investors Service has slashed its growth forecasts for the advanced and emerging nations in the G-20, citing an increase in the downside risks to global recovery, RBC reported.
It said in its latest Global Macro-Risk Outlook 2012-2013 update, the ratings agency says real growth in the G-20 economies will be about 2.8 per cent in the 2012 and 3.4 per cent in the following year. This is a respective 20 basis points and 10 basis points lower than Moody’s predicted in April.
According to the agency, the main risks to global growth are the deeper than expected recession in the eurozone, the danger of a hard landing in major emerging markets such as China, India and Brazil, an oil-price supply-side shock caused by resurfacing geopolitical risks and the potential for sudden and sharp fiscal tightening in the US next year.
G-20 advanced economies, which include the eurozone, the UK and the US, are expected to grow by about 1.4 per cent in 2012 and 2.0 per cent in 2013. This compares with 1.4 per cent last year and 3 per cent in 2010.
Moody’s group credit officer for sovereign risk Elena Duggar says: “In our view, fiscal consolidation efforts, weak consumer and business confidence, banking and household sector deleveraging, persistently high unemployment levels and real-estate market weakness will continue to constrain growth in advanced economies.”
The ratings agency also predicts G-20 emerging economies will grow by about 5.2 per cent in 2012 and 5.7 per cent next year. This is “materially lower” than the 6.6 per cent seen in 2011 and the 8 per cent achieved in 2010. -0-
