YEREVAN, November 28. /ARKA/. The Central Bank of Armenia has changed its 2016 outlook for the national economy growth downward – from 2.8-3.4% to 1.3-1.8%, the regulator says in its inflation report based on its monetary policy for the fourth quarter of 2016 and the third-quarter performance of the policy.
The regulator says in its report that it revised its outlook downward because of the lower-than-expected economic growth indicators in the second quarter, little trade turnover and risks connected with the reduced agriculture and industry outputs.
It also says that the contraction of the inflow of money transfers into Armenia from Russia has significantly slowed down, and this will continue weakening domestic demand. But things will be mitigated by expansionary monetary and tax-budgetary policies and a low deflation environment.
In these conditions domestic demand is expected to grow 0.4%, which is still lower than its balanced definition.
It means that amid the weak domestic demand, economic growth will be stimulated mostly by net export in 2016.
The central bank predicts 5.5-6.1% VAT growth for industry in 2016, and also 2.2-2.6% growth for services.
According to the regulator’s forecast, construction is believed to face 1.8-2.6% decline and agriculture 0.7-0.1% decline.
In the government budget for 2016, GDP growth is projected at 2.2%. –0—
